Analisis Kebijakan BI Rate Periode 2010-2025: Penerapan Augmented Taylor Rule

Abstract

This study examines the behavior of Bank Indonesia’s policy interest rate within an Augmented Taylor Rule framework over January 2010–September 2025 to assess whether monetary policy in an emerging open economy remains systematically guided by domestic and external macroeconomic conditions amid global uncertainty. It evaluates the effects of the inflation gap, output gap, real effective exchange rate (REER), and the Federal Funds Rate on the BI policy rate using monthly data and the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach to capture short-run dynamics and long-run equilibrium relationships. The results confirm a stable long-run relationship supported by a significant error correction mechanism, indicating gradual adjustment toward equilibrium. In the short run, only the inflation gap has a positive and significant effect, underscoring the central role of price stability, while the output gap and external variables show no immediate impact. In the long run, inflation remains the primary anchor, whereas REER and the Federal Funds Rate exert positive and significant effects, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability and global conditions. The output gap is not significant, suggesting real activity fluctuations are not the dominant factor in interest rate decisions, implying Bank Indonesia’s policy rule is inflation-oriented yet responsive to external pressures.