ANALISIS PENGARUH FAKTOR EKONOMI, SOSIAL, DAN LINGKUNGAN TERHADAP DEFORESTASI DI PULAU KALIMANTAN: PENDEKATAN REGRESI PANEL AUTOREGRESSIVE DISTRIBUTED LAG (ARDL)

Abstract

Forest cover change in Kalimantan represents a strategic environmental issue, given the region’s role as one of Indonesia’s largest tropical forest areas. This study examines the impact of mining sector Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP), poverty rate, and forest fire area on deforestation across five provinces in Kalimantan from 2014 to 2024. The Panel Autoregressive Distributed Lag (Panel ARDL) model is employed to distinguish short-run and long-run dynamics. The results reveal that poverty and forest fires exert positive and significant effects on deforestation in the long run, whereas mining GRDP does not show statistical significance. In contrast, short-run estimates indicate negative and significant effects of mining GRDP and poverty, while forest fires remain insignificant. These findings suggest that long-term structural and ecological pressures play a greater role in forest loss than short-term economic fluctuations. Policy responses should therefore prioritize sustainable poverty reduction and comprehensive forest fire management.